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Grocery inflation reaches record high of 15% in July

CHICAGO, Aug. 09, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has released its latest inflation insights and shopping behavior index to measure the impact of rising prices on consumer behavior.

Weekly data updates include price and trip tracking based on verified consumer purchase data.

Overall, Grocery prices began a new climb following a slight plateau, while the Household and Health & Beauty sectors set new records for inflation rates in July, driven in part by Amazon Prime Day.

Inflation Price Pulse:

  • Grocery prices continue to set new records. After leveling off in early July, grocery prices began to climb again at the end of the month, up 15.4% vs YA for the 4-week period ending 7/31/22.
  • Snacks and Beverages inflation continue to outpace total grocery. The inflation rates for Snacks (+19%) and Beverages (+18.1%) have doubled since the beginning of the year. Inflation rates in categories such as Meat (+14%), Produce +9%), and Alcoholic Beverages (+3.7%) remain elevated, though lag behind total grocery.
  • Health & Beauty inflation rates have doubled in four months. In April 2022, Health & Beauty prices were up 9% vs YA. After remaining relatively stable through June 2022, prices spiked in late July, climbing to +18.5% vs YA.
    Increases were primarily driven by Medical Products (+21.2%), as well as Skincare and Hair Care (+16.2% and +14.7%, respectively), two categories posting elevated sales on Prime Day.
  • Household products skyrocket past +20% in July. For the period ending 7/31/22, Household product prices were up 21.6% vs YA – the first sector to post inflation rates greater than 20%.
    Household Cleaners and Paper & Plastic products saw the highest inflation rates of all tracked categories in July, (+21.9% and +19.3%, respectively), with Household Cleaners’ inflation rate growing nearly 5x since the beginning of the year.
  • Online and Dollar remain the most impacted channels. Online grocery prices grew to +25.7% vs YA for the 4-week period ending 7/31/22, followed by Dollar at +22.4%.
  • The Club channel reached double digit inflation for the first time in July. While Club stores’ grocery inflation rates continue to lag behind other channels, July marked the first time that inflation reached +10%, before settling back to +9.3% by the end of the month.
  • Grocery inflation impact is converging across demographics. In contrast to disproportionate impacts seen earlier in the year, inflation rates have spread more evenly across consumer cohorts in July, with slightly elevated impact among Suburban, Low Income, and Gen Z consumers (+16.1%, +15.5%, +16.3%, respectively).

Inflation Shopping Impact:

  • Spending is up across most major channels. After softening demand in late June, overall spending is on the rise again in July, up 26% vs YA, driven by higher spending per trip (+14% vs YA).
  • Prime Day drove a surge in online sales, most prominent among high income consumers. Online spending spiked to +90% vs YA the week of Prime Day and even greater (+103%) among high income consumers.
  • In-store spending declined as consumers shopped online in July. Following steady increases throughout 2022, in-store spending began to dip in July, down 7 points from June highs of +23%, though still up from this time last year.
  • Consumers are cutting back on dining out. Quick Service Restaurants are seeing declines in both sales and trips in July – each down approximately 10 points from June 2022 levels.

Methodology: Percent changes in Numerator’s Price Pulse are calculated at a category level inclusive of all purchased products within the category. Average price per item within a category is based on verified purchase data from over 100,000 Numerator panelists (demographically weighted to the current US census), and the average price from the past four weeks is compared versus the same period one year ago. The Shopping Behavior Index is updated weekly and covers year-over-year trip and spending trends across 12 retail channels.

Income level brackets are defined as: Low Income (<$40k/year), Middle Income ($40-$80k/year), and High Income (>$80k/year).The Price Pulse includes a cross-channel view of prices. Both indexes include channel-specific views and cuts by consumer demographic groups.

About Numerator:

Numerator is a data and tech company bringing speed and scale to market research. Numerator blends first-party data from over 1 million US households with advanced technology to provide 360-degree consumer understanding for the market research industry that has been slow to change. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has 2,000 employees worldwide; 80 of the top 100 CPG brands’ manufacturers are Numerator clients.