When it comes to immigration and building a wall between the United States and Mexico, Flores says, “I believe the wall will have more of a negative impact than NAFTA revocation. Regardless if NAFTA is revoked or not, the ultimate loser will be the consumer,” he warns, since tariffs and duty charges would become an added expense for fruits and vegetables. “Duty on some produce is by value percentage and others by net weight,” he continues. “If NAFTA is revoked, I can see small customs brokers going out of business if they don’t have good, solid cash flow.”
Under NAFTA, produce is exempt from duty fees; without this protection, Flores says fresh avocados, for example, would incur a duty of 11.2 cents per kilogram, fresh papaya would ring up a duty of 5.4 percent of value, and watermelon, depending on the time of year, would have a duty of either 9 or 17 percent of value.
All of these added fees would increase prices for everyone along the supply chain. “As you can see, it seems to make a difference, but it will all depend on supply and demand,” Flores contends. “I’ve been involved in the customs brokerage field for over 30 years—before NAFTA—and the ultimate consumer will dictate how and if there is any decrease of imports, and the impact of the revocation of NAFTA.”
DeBerry, too, refers to supply and demand. “The market forces will play out like they always do and at some point, supply will meet demand. That being said, there will be some posturing on both sides of the border to be sure—and there may be a hiccup or two along the way—but in the end, everything will end up working like it always does, as far as produce items are concerned.”
Ruiz of Ruiz Sales has no NAFTA concerns and no reservations whatsoever for the coming four years and new administration. “My projections on the effects for the Rio Grande Valley is that our elected president, Donald Trump, will secure borders, reform immigration laws, [and] create jobs.”
Further, Ruiz believes Trump will follow through on many other issues, many of which will affect produce suppliers, such as deregulation and lowering taxes for small businesses. In this vein, Bazan has similar thoughts.
“I believe Trump is a smart guy, he’s a business man,” Bazan says. “He’s going to connect with business individuals and once he does, I believe he’ll make the right choices.” He also believes the Pharr Bridge will “continue growing as one of the most prominent land ports in the nation. We’re ranked thirtieth of all land ports, and out of the thirty, we’re the sixth most important gateway for commerce with the rest of the world, so we need to continue on that path.”
Ruiz is also confident Trump and others will “empower high-technology education to compete worldwide, and support U.S. veterans’ medical needs. These are all blessings for a safe Rio Grande Valley that will promote prosperous trade, business growth, and a great bright produce future.”
