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September inflation slightly above expectations

consumer price index cpi

The consumer price index for September showed an increase of 0.4 percent from August to September and 3.7 percent from a year ago.

Experts had predicted a rise of 0.3 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, so it’s slightly higher than expected.

In food, the month-over-month increase was 0.2 percent, the same as the previous month. Overall food inflation was 3.7 percent higher than a year ago. The fruits and vegetables index was unchanged over the month.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released this report October 12, 2023:

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – SEPTEMBER 2023

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. An increase in the gasoline index was also a major contributor to the all items monthly rise. While the major energy component indexes were mixed in September, the energy index rose 1.5 percent over the month. The food index increased 0.2 percent in September, as it did in the previous two months.

The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, the same increase as in August. Indexes which increased in September include rent, owners’ equivalent rent, lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles. The indexes for used cars and trucks and for apparel were among those that decreased over the month.

The all items index increased 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, the same increase as the 12 months ending in August. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.5 percent for the 12 months ending September, and the food index increased 3.7 percent over the last year.

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Food

The food index rose 0.2 percent in September, as it did in the previous two months. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month, after rising 0.2 percent in August. Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the month. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.5 percent in September as the index for pork increased 1.6 percent. The index for other food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month and the index for dairy and related products rose 0.1 percent.

The index for cereals and bakery products decreased 0.4 percent in September, the first decline in that index since June 2021. The fruits and vegetables index was unchanged over the month, as was the nonalcoholic beverages index.

The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent in September. The index for limited service meals and the index for full service meals each increased 0.4 percent. The food at home index rose 2.4 percent over the last 12 months. The index for cereals and bakery products rose 4.8 percent over the 12 months ending in September. The dairy and related products index decreased 0.2 percent over the year. The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases ranging from 0.2 percent (meat, poultry, fish, and eggs) to 4.2 percent (other food at home).

The index for food away from home rose 6.0 percent over the last year. The index for limited service meals rose 6.4 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for full service meals rose 5.1 percent over the same period.

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Greg Johnson is Vice President of Media for Blue Book Services