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Cost-conscious shoppers drawn to promotions more than ever

catalina shopping basket index
Catalina has once again tracked pricing trends over the past year for 10 popular grocery product categories using data pulled from its Shopper Intelligence Platform.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla., May 12, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — For the first quarter of 2023, prices in several food and personal care categories topped the overall rate of inflation in the U.S. and Europe, according to the Catalina Shopping Basket Index. To compile its latest economic report, Catalina tapped into its real-time Shopper Intelligence Platform to look at the aggregate price increase of 10 common product categories in the U.S., U.K., Italy, France, and Germany compared to the same period in 2022.

 “A number of factors have been driving up prices in Europe and the U.S., including the war in Ukraine, lingering supply chain disruptions, and rising aluminum, ingredient, labor and energy costs,” said Sean Murphy, Chief Data & Analytics Officer at Catalina. “In response, we’re seeing CPG marketers and retailers place more emphasis on promotions and price incentives and we’re working more closely with them to earn the loyalty of value-conscious shoppers with highly personalized offers.”

Double-Digit Price Hikes Across U.S. and Europe
On average, yogurt prices rose the most in Q1 of 2023, up 18%, closely followed by Frozen Food (+17%) and Frozen Vegetables (+16%). The biggest individual country price jumps posted were for cereal in the U.S., up 21% from a year ago, and Deodorant in Germany, which rose 27%.

CategoryUKUSFranceGermany     Italy
Yogurt+23 %+21 %+16 %+15 %+15 %
Frozen Foods+17 %+17 %+19 %+19 %+15 %
Frozen Vegetables+19 %+16 %+16 %+13 %+15 %
Paper Products+15 %+9 %+18 %+18 %+14 %
Soaps & Detergents+15 %+8 %+17 %+8 %+10 %
Coffee+7 %+16 %+19 %+9 %+12 %
Cereal+9 %+21 %+9 %+11 %+10 %
Soft Drinks & Water+13 %+19 %+8 %+6 %+11 %
Hand & Bath Soaps+5 %+17 %+5 %+13 %+10 %
Deodorant+7 %+12 %+5 %+27 %+7 %
Average+12 %+16 %+13 %+14 %+12 %
Source: Catalina Shopper Intelligence Platform Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022

Q1 Inflation Rate Trends Higher in Certain Categories
The Catalina Shopping Basket Index shows prices for these 10 common grocery items was at least twice the inflation rate for food at home reported by their respective governments. For all countries surveyed, food prices rose on average 1% from Q3 2022, but are now stabilizing in Italy (6%), France, and Germany, both 5%. U.K. food prices have continued to rise to 7%, with the U.S. dropping slightly from 7.4% in Q4 2022 to 7.2% in Q1 2023.

Inflation Rate for Food at Home 
COUNTRYQ3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q1 2023
Shopping Basket
UK+5 %+6 %+7 %+19 %
US+6 %+7 %+7 %+16 %
FRANCE+4 %+5 %+5 %+14 %
GERMANY+4 %+5 %+5 %+13 %
ITALY+5 %+6 %+6 %+12 %
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, UK Office of National Statistics, ISTAT (Italy), INSEE (France),
Destatis (Germany), Catalina Shopper Intelligence Platform.

U.S. Inflation Rate for Groceries Slows in Q1
Inflation is hitting shopping baskets unevenly in the U.S. Cereal and yogurt had the biggest jumps, both up 21% from a year ago. But the rate of inflation is slowing across categories, when compared with Q3 2022. All categories fluctuated no more than two percentage points, an indicator that inflation continues to slow in the U.S. But the Catalina Shopping Basket Index, which averages +16%, is higher than the Consumer Price Index’s +7% Q1 inflation rate for food at home.

U.K. Grocery Prices Average the Highest Across Categories
The U.K. is experiencing the highest inflation rate in Europe. The Catalina Shopping Basket Index shows prices rose 19% on average from a year ago for the 10 common categories. Yogurt prices rose 23% from Q1 2022, followed by Frozen Vegetables (+19%), Frozen Food (+17%), Paper Products and Soaps & Detergents, which both posted a +15% increase. Only the Coffee and Deodorant categories are on pace with the U.K.’s Office of National Statistics +7% rate of inflation for Q1 2023. Hand & Bath Soaps trended lower at +5%.

France, Germany & Italy
The Q1 inflation rates are fairly consistent across France (+14%), Germany (+13%), and Italy (+12%), according to the Catalina Shopping Basket Index. Outliers in France and Germany include Frozen Food, both +19%, and Paper Products, both +18%. Soft Drinks in Germany are a relative bargain, with prices rising only +6% from a year ago, as is the cost of Deodorant in France, at +5%.

 “With the worldwide increase in inflation starting back in mid-2021, our insights about traditionally price-sensitive and value-seeking shoppers apply to even more consumers now. We continue to advise our customers that these challenging economic times are an opportunity for brands to fine-tune their omni-channel approach to deliver relevant offers and valuable incentives to help shoppers make the most of their dollars,” said Murphy.