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ProduceIQ: Winter storm roils Western markets

Asparagus-in-Hollywood

It’s not every day that snow in LA County is responsible for flight delays across the U.S. Winter storm Piper brought heavy wind, rain, and, yes, snow to So-Cal this past weekend.

Piper, a severe winter storm, is following hot on the trails of Olive, a storm that started on the West Coast early last week and blanketed Western growing regions in cold and rain throughout the week. The inclement weather is having the biggest effect on commodities such as lettuce, cauliflower, broccoli, and celery.

Cold and wet weather is stunting growth and delaying harvests in Mexico. Asparagus prices are up a startling +40 percent over the previous week. This week’s reported Mexican import volume is significantly behind the norm for week #8.

ProduceIQ Index:  $1.05/pound, flat over prior week

Week #8, ending February 24th

Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.

Growers are forecasting markets to remain volatile for the next few weeks. However, supply will likely improve with warmer Mexican weather expected in Mid-March.

Asparagus prices spike early, reaching historical highs near $35

Avocado crossings through Texas are reportedly significantly down. In response, Hass prices are up to $27. Still comparatively low but forecasted to climb higher as Mexican growers enter an annual lull in production. 

Blueberry prices increase as the Peruvian export season wanes. Average prices are up +18 percent over the previous week and may climb higher as blueberry production splinters across Central and North America.

Over the next two weeks, Peru will pass the metaphorical torch to Mexico as growers ramp up production. Following close behind in the West, growers in Central California, will begin their Spring season. And Central Florida growers, trailed closely by Georgia growers, will also come online in the East. Expect price volatility as the supply fluctuates during transitional periods.

Blueberry prices reach $21, resembling the early price spike that occurred in the year 2020

Cold weather from winter storms Olive and Piper is negatively affecting cauliflower supply. Prices are only up +8 percent over the previous week, but unfortunately for buyers, at $32, any increase is like salt in the wound.

In a few weeks, cauliflower markets will shift focus from Western Arizona to Central California. A good bit of price volatility can be expected from cauliflower markets.

Apathetic demand is keeping celery prices relatively stable despite low supply. Like other Western veg commodities, the recent bouts of wintery weather aren’t helping celery supply. Prices remain relatively stable due to softer demand but have the potential to increase significantly if cold weather continues to plague Western growing regions.

After meteoric highs, Celery prices flatten out to $18, still higher than many $10 floor-priced years.

At $16, week #8 eggplant prices are at a ten-year high. Demand for eggplant is rising due to the beginning of the Lent season and low supply. The reported Mexican import and Florida volumes are below average compared to historical week #8 data. On the bright side, supply is forecasted to improve for our seasonal vegetarians in early March.

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ProduceIQ Index

The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce, and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce. 

ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service for movement and price data. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.

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Mark Campbell was introduced to the fresh produce industry as a lender for Farm Credit. After earning his MBA from Columbia Business School, he spent seven years as CFO for J&J Family of Farms and later served as CFO advisor to several produce growers, shippers and distributors. In this role, Mark saw the impediments that prevent produce growers and buyers to trade with greater access and efficiency. This led him to cofound ProduceIQ.