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USDA lowers Florida orange forecast

orange

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its February citrus forecast, which shows a drop of 2 percent for Florida oranges from January and 4 percent for Florida Valencia oranges.

All Oranges 43.5 Million Boxes
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 43.5 million boxes, down 2 percent from the January forecast. If realized, this will be 18 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 17.5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 26.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom.

Non-Valencia Oranges 17.5 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is unchanged at 17.5 million boxes. Size and drop components were final last month. The Row Count survey conducted January 25-26, 2022, showed 87 percent of the early and mid-season non-Valencia rows, excluding Navels, are harvested. Estimated utilization for non-Valencia oranges (including Navels) to February 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 16.7 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 480,000 boxes.

Valencia Oranges 26.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is reduced 1.0 million boxes from the January forecast and is now 26.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest.

All Grapefruit 4.10 Million Boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is unchanged from January. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 3.30 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 800,000 boxes. Fruit size and drop are final in this report. White grapefruit final size is above average, while red grapefruit final size is below average. Drop for both white and red grapefruit is below average. Estimated utilization for white grapefruit to February 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 232,000 boxes and for red grapefruit is 1.56 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted January 25-26, 2022 showed 50 percent of the grapefruit rows are harvested.

Tangerines and Tangelos 800,000 Boxes
The forecast for tangerines and tangelos is unchanged from the January forecast and is 800,000 boxes, 10 percent less than last season’s utilization of 890,000 boxes. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.