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Florida citrus forecast drops again

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released its Citrus January Forecast Jan. 12.

All Oranges 44.5 Million Boxes
The 2021-2022 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 44.5 million boxes, down 1.50 million boxes from the December forecast. If realized, this will be 16 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 17.5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 27.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom.

Non-Valencia Oranges 17.5 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered 500,000 boxes to 17.5 million boxes. Final fruit size is close to the minimum, requiring 326 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Final droppage of non-Valencia oranges (excluding Navels) at 39 percent is close to the maximum. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 450,000 boxes, and is 3 percent of the
non-Valencia total.

Valencia Oranges 27.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is lowered 1.00 million boxes from the December forecast to 27.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is close to the minimum and is projected to be close to the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest.

All Grapefruit 4.10 Million Boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is unchanged from December at 4.10 million boxes. If realized, this will be equal to last season’s final production. The red grapefruit forecast is held at 3.30 million boxes. Fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be average, and droppage is projected to be average. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 800,000 boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is above average. White grapefruit droppage is projected to be below average.

Tangerines and Tangelos 800,000 Boxes
The forecast for tangerines and tangelos is reduced 100,000 boxes from December and is now 800,000 boxes, 10 percent less than last season’s utilization of 890,000 boxes. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.