Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report on projected changes in the U.S. workforce between 2020 and 2030.
The dominant factor will be the continued increase in the population over 65, as the baby boomers age. Because the baby boom ended in 1964, by 2030 all boomers will be 66 or older.
“While the population is projected to grow by 20.8 million over the 2020–30 decade, more than 80 percent of that growth (17.1 million) is accounted for by people ages 65 and older,” the report says.
As a result, health care occupations will enjoy some of the highest rates of growth (32.5 percent for medical and health service managers, for example)
The report projects an annual growth at 2.3 percent nationwide, partly because of anticipated continued recovery from the pandemic.
Real output in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industries will increase by 2.3 percent from 2020 to 2030, it says.
The number of jobs in this sector, however, will increase only slightly—by 0.2 percent (see table). Rises in wage and salaried positions here will be offset by the decline in self-employed farmers and their unpaid family members.
Jobs in these sectors will continue to decline as a percentage of the workforce, from 1.5 percent in 2020 to a projected 1.4 percent in 2030.
Agriculture, fishing, and forestry have the highest percentage of Hispanic workers, accounting for 43 percent of the work force.
Overall, the report reflects trends that are already visible at large. Retail trade is forecast to shed 586,600 jobs over this decade, with wholesale trade adding 141,000 jobs, as consumers continue to move to online shopping.
One job category with among the highest rates of increase is heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, due to increase 6.6 percent by 2030.
