The 2021-22 California navel orange crop is forecast to be 14 percent smaller than last season.
The California Department of Food and Agriculture, along with the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, set its initial crop forecast at 70 million cartons.
According to the forecast report:
Of the total Navel orange forecast, 67.0 million cartons are estimated to be in the Central Valley. Cara Cara variety Navel orange production in the Central Valley is forecast at 6.0 million cartons.
These forecasts are based on the results of the 2021-22 Navel Orange Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was conducted from June 15 to September 1, 2021. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per box were used in the statistical models estimating production.
This forecast includes production of conventional, organic, and specialty Navel oranges (including Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties).
Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 239, down 25% from the previous year and below the five-year average of 344. The average September 1 diameter was 2.145 inches, below the five-year average of 2.208 inches. The Cara Cara orange set was 211 with a diameter of 2.146