Park believes this cost factor will cause home delivery to be big in cities, but less outside of urban zones, though she hopes it will work for everyone. “If Amazon is doing it, they must have figured something out. Most of the growth is in professionals and dual-incomes, and the people who have a little more purchasing power, but definitely need the convenience.”
Many speculate Amazon’s move into food is just another way to drive overall merchandise sales, similar to Walmart’s entry into the grocery segment years ago.
Cost vs. Convenience
In speaking of cost, Peterson predicts a rise in deep discounters like Aldi and the newer Lidl chain stores. While he says these businesses themselves won’t make a dent in the sales of behemoth retailers like Walmart, the big chains may be looking at a “death by a thousand cuts” as consumers explore these newer shopping options and suppliers grapple with pricing. “If your value proposition to the retailer is price and someone takes that away from you,” Peterson warns, “you’ve got a problem.”
Another variable is size. “The 1990s and early 2000s were defined by the proliferation of supercenters,” Peterson observes. “Things in retail are cyclical; we’ve gone around to big big big and now we’re small small small. Something to keep an eye on is the move to smaller store formats.”
The Road Not Taken
Lori Taylor, a.k.a. Indianapolis-based “The Produce Mom” believes some of the bigger generational family grower-shippers have begun to market themselves differently to compete in the smaller/local-emphasis market. “I’m thinking of Braga Fresh Family Farms and the Josie’s Organics line,” she explains. “Here’s a huge player in the game, land owners, farming over 100 years, and they rolled out an organics line named after their grandmother. I think you’re going to see more companies do this—storytelling and personal family heritage.”
Taylor has also seen the industry supporting local gardening projects and food initiatives like “Unbake Sales,” held for school fundraisers with watermelon cut in the shape of cupcakes and other fruit and vegetable edible ‘art’ forms. Other venues that have not previously tapped into the locally grown phenomenon are getting on board; one such example is the rooftop garden at Boston’s Fenway Park. As an environment known for mostly unhealthy food options such as hot dogs and beer, adding fruits and vegetables to the menu is a step in the right direction.
THE VICIOUS CIRCLE: WATER
In revisiting California’s water shortage, there is little change. “The problem is acute and chronic in California,” confirms Julie Manes, director of government relations at United Fresh Produce Association, “and other parts in the West.”
