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Future Forward

Thoughts and predictions on 2015 from throughout the industry
Front Feature

When it comes to immigration, Tom Nassif, president and CEO of Irvine, CA-based Western Growers Association, predicts dire consequences if the nation’s immigration problem isn’t solved soon. As grower-shippers continue to struggle without steady labor, many are planting fewer acres, abandoning or fallowing fields, or switching to crops like wheat or alfalfa.

Others, Nassif says, “have opted to move their labor offshore where governments try to help farmers instead of impede them.” Outsourcing, however, creates its own set of worries, including what Nassif calls the ‘multiplier effect.’ If every outsourced farm job creates two to three nonfarm jobs, he explains, “you’ll also see the price of produce going sky high because of limited supply,” which will then be followed by lower-priced imports, further disrupting the market.

Nassif is well aware of immigration reform’s complexity, citing “dozens of issues to negotiate” from guest worker caps to pathways to citizenship, but insists it can be done. And there is a glimmer of hope: President Obama’s November promise to begin reform through executive action, perhaps ushering in the most dramatic immigration changes since the Reagan era.

Food safety and traceability are also constant companions to most within the industry, and Miguel Gomez, associate professor at Cornell University, believes the pressure will continue to mount as both consumers and regulators are increasingly intolerant of foodborne illnesses and recalls. Unfortunately, there is no fast fix. “I don’t think we’ll find a silver bullet,” he says, “it is a problem with many complications.”

Elliott Grant, founder and chief technology officer of Redwood City, CA-based YottaMark, agrees but is content with the progress of the Produce Traceability Initiative (PTI) so far. “We’re in the execution phase,” he notes, “which is a bit less exciting than the innovation stage. As an industrywide shift in behavior, it’s going to take time.” It was crucial, however, “to see someone like Walmart step up,” he points out, which turned traceability from an ‘if this will happen’ to a ‘when this will happen’ scenario.

In the more distant future, Grant predicts other food sectors will look to PTI as a model. “If I could put my finger on anything, it’s the leadership of the trade associations,” he says. “It was pretty chaotic until they stepped in and created industry-led committees for each of the key areas.” Although PTI is a U.S. initiative, Grant predicts it will spark a “global awakening.”

Growing & Shipping
Consumers demanding year-round availability of a wide assortment of produce is not new, at least not in high-end retailers. But Gomez finds that shoppers at all levels are expecting such access and grocers, whether chains or independents, as well as discounters, are heeding the call.

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